First I gotta congratulate Bernie on his huge upset in Michigan. It’s a testament to how his campaign can close hard when they go all in and contest with 110% of their energy and resources. Polls were way off, and Hillary’s campaign was caught napping. I’m applauding Sanders. Michigan was, in my model, make or break, win or go home for Sanders, and it looks like against great odds, he eked out the win. Whenever Democrats Abroad report their votes, he should get another sizable win, judging from demographics in 2008. That makes for 2 wins this Tuesday. Once again though, Sanders’ loss outweighs even the most uplifting of wins, as he lost Mississippi 82-16. This means over all, Clinton wins today’s delegate race and popular vote, but not by what she wanted to.
Mississippi: Clinton + 25
Michigan: Sanders + 7
Democrats Abroad: ? (I’m guessing a +7 Sanders split)
3/09/2016 total: Clinton +11
Harry Enten noted that Sanders still underperformed his delegate counts over all, including, it seems right now, Michigan, and this is not counting the fact that Sanders is only at about 85% of where he needed to be at this point in their model. So, Sanders still faces the problem that he has to really outdo his delegate wins in their model somewhere to catch up.
But make no doubt, even a 15,000 vote, plurality win in Michigan is huge. It legitimizes the Sanders campaign in big states and in a primary. It’s great for motivating his donor base which will enable him to maintain his current heavy burn rate. Meanwhile the Clinton campaign has also learned some valuable lessons and to curb their overconfidence, so its good over all for the Democratic party. By overconfidence, I mean twice as many Democrats voted in the Republican primary as Republicans voted in the Democratic primary, and apparently most of them where Clinton voters that assumed Hillary had the race in the bag. Hillary also didn’t campaign much in the state state prior to the debates, and got outspent by Sanders in the final weeks, including a 2:1 deficit around Flint that definitely proved key to helping him win. Michigan was in many ways, still a good target for Sanders demographically, and with its industrial struggles and anger over past trade deals (one of the very few areas where Hillary can actually, legitimately, and factually be said to have a centrist rather than progressive stance on) made apt targets for Sanders campaign.
It also means Sanders can compete in big midwestern states. Makes next week a lot more interesting. Sanders top target is, naturally, Ohio. In North Carolina and Florida he’s making no more than token efforts to keep Clinton’s margin down a bit, which is a smart response to the lessons learned from pulling out of some big southern states prior to Super Tuesday. After Ohio, his top target is probably Missouri, while outside of the southern states (the south finishes up that day) Illinois is probably the state where Hillary is in the strongest position, despite the drubbing she got in 2008 against the popular home grown star, Barack Obama. Next Tuesday is still interesting, especially give the closeness of Michigan, it means that either candidate has a shot at possibly sweeping all the midwestern states next week.
The campaign strategies for both sides on Super Tuesday 2 we can already see and here they are, put simply.
Sanders: Don’t get blown out as badly in North Carolina and Florida as these are two big states with a lot of delegates. Win at least 2 of the midwestern states and ideally obviously, sweep them. Basically keep this day relatively neutral/even between the two sides and prepare for a much better string of states afterwards, including numerous caucuses like the delegate rich Washington caucus that will go overwhelmingly for Sanders, and a Wisconsin and Wyoming primary where he should be favored.
Clinton: Pad the lead, pad the lead. As I said, coming up soon are a series of contests where Sanders should get some nice win and make up some delegates. Clinton is going to want to blunt that with a bigger lead and enough momentum to dent some of his margins and maybe even pick up one or two of the states over the next few weeks. To this end, Clinton would ideally like a sweep of all 6 states, even if that includes some squeakers in the midwest. Maximize delegates out of North Carolina and Florida. Ideally she wants North Carolina to look more like Virginia, and Florida to look similar to Texas in terms of margin.
So, take notes. And as you watch next week, see which scenario happens and you’ll be able to gauge which way the primary is falling, and whether it puts Sanders too far behind or keeps him viable. I definitely buy the idea that this primary is making the party stronger so long as it doesn’t get too divisive. I hope Sanders doesn’t go hard negative late in the process, but other than that I’m happy to see all the money getting raised, keeping Democratic messages on TV in ads and news. Otherwise the Republicans would be dominating the public attention even more. There’s a lot of good energy and party building going on in this primary and I hope that regardless of the nominee it continues into the general. As one of the Sanders campaign people said, fundraising especially isn’t a zero-sum game. Success in fundraising and elections is sort of a process bringing in more and more donors into the field; that is, the field isn’t limited beforehand. We are starting to see good base intensity in the party in states that both campaigns are actively targeting. So congrats Sanders. Next Tuesday will determine whether this was a moment that saved his campaign to keep running viably through March, or whether it was more a Pyrrhic victory and that Clinton’s focus on next Tuesday may help put her firmly back in the driver’s seat. At the moment though, there’s no denying Sanders has gotten a grip on the gear shift.