*Note: All Japanese names in this entry are written Family Name First, given name Second, as is done in Japanese and as the Japanese government has been moving to implement in official English translations and media.
Welp, the books are closed on Japan’s 10/31 elections. Turnout was up to around 56% of voters (Japan doesn’t have voter registration; if you are a citizen you get a ballot ticket in the mail that you turn in at a polling station to vote, as my fiancé explained it to me), a little higher than the last two times, but well, very little changed. The LDP took a very light hit on the top lines, dropping from 276 to 261 but maintaining their absolute majority. Komeito, the junior coalition partner, increased a bit to 32 seats. But this hides what an absolute fucking disaster this election was to the left, with the main Left Leaning party, the Constitutional Democratic party losing 13 seats and falling under 100 to 96 seats, despite the fact the Communist Party of Japan (a very mainstream Democratic socialism party at this point that is actually one of the most stringent China critics in Japanese government and has very little interest in traditional Marxism or State Capitalism, despite how the LDP and conservatives in Japan portray them, which is as the second coming of Mao and the party is still labeled, along with ISIS, as one of the biggest national security threats in Japan by the national police agency), agreeing to form a non-aggression pact (while ruling out joining a coalition government), wherein they didn’t run candidates in races where they might serve as spoiler. The Socialist Party continues to hold just 1 seat, and to serve as an almost irrelevant, sometimes spoiler party for Leftist purists (they are way more radical on a host of issues than the Communists), while Reiwa Shinsengumi made a few waves, increasing to 3 seats. RS, for short, is a celebrity vehicle of a party that split from the Constitutional Democratic party. The name even comes from its founder, Yamamoto Taro’s famous role in a mid-2000s TV drama about the late Edo era secret police, the Shinsengumi.
On the other hand, the Japan Innovation Party (Isshin no Kai), soared in this election, gaining 31 seats and moving to the 3rd largest party in parliament, taking a number of seats from both the main parties. This is pretty terrible, as the Innovation party is awful; they are basically Osaka area, right-wing LDP members who made a Kansai (Western Japan) regional grievance party, with a populist edge. They are a super anti-union, pro-business party committed to neoliberal economic policies, way more so than the LDP, which gives no fucks about anything other than its own power and civic and business partners. Oh, and Isshin also supports revising Article 9 in Japan’s constitution (the article than bans war), and expanding the defense budget and are more jingoist and nationalist than the LDJ in general. As a potential silver lining, it seems Isshin no Kai simply sucked up a lot of anti-LDP votes as the only other (than the Constitutional Democratic Party), non-LDP party option. Loads of races, especially in Tokyo and Kanagawa, where the LDP barely held in constituencies, with only 38% or 42% of the vote, and the anti-LDP vote, from loads of low info voters, split between the CDP and Isshin, which ran a very populist, anti-LDP campaign this time around.
The Komeito party is, as even most people on DKE probably do not know, primarily a vehicle for Soka Gakkai, a modern Nichiren Buddhist offshoot denomination that was heavily persecuted and attacked as a cult in the 1950s and 1960s, but has since spent most of the past 60 years transitioning into mainstream society and was never really that radical. They are more conservative and religiously oriented (and anti-Shinto and have some strong beliefs about people’s mindsets and hearts affecting the environment around them), but not particularly radical. But the Komeito party is pretty right-wing; they are a libertarian flavored, anti-government party that wants to decentralize power even further (to the prefectures), and privatize much of government. Their big schtick is transparency, and in that sense, they can be one of the few honest sources of information and criticism within Japan’s infamously opaque and convoluted government workings. They have a pretty big humanitarian schtick, and they serve generally serve as Good Cop to the LDJ’s Bad Cop when it comes to constitutional reform related to Article 9.
Yeah, Japanese politics is an absolute mess down the ballot. Pretty surprising and yet not surprising? Rapidly sacrificing Suga on the altar of public opinion and replacing him with the astoundingly dull and non-threatening bureaucrat, Kishida Fumio (picked over Abe’s groomed right-wing nationalist successor Takaichi, and the more moderate, reformist flavored Kono Taro, widely lauded as the architect of Japan’s vaccine rollout and who won the local chapter elections in 39 of Japan’s 47 prefectures, including all of Tokyo, and was passed over by the entrenched conservative old guard of the LDP), seems to have been enough to save the LDP in a lot of late breaking and relatively close Constituency seats (Japan uses a mix of constituency and proportional voting). The absolute collapse of Coronavirus cases for nearly all of October, and a sense of normalcy returning, also probably helped dull the response. I still find it amusing to have another prime minister who is the son and grandson of politicians who held his same seat, a Hiroshima constituency (like “Yamaguchi Prefecture Native” Abe Shinzo, Kishida was, lol, born and raised in Tokyo and its elite private schools and succeeded his father in the Diet after his father died, without ever having really spent any substantial period of time in his home constituency).
But I have to remind myself not to look at Japanese politics with an American eye. Of the people I encountered, probably a full half of them were undecided even a week before the election (and many of those people didn’t end up voting probably). Most people who vote here too, put almost zero consideration into political issues. Repealing Article 9 or expanding the Self-Defense force tend to be pretty unpopular (I suspect that’s the reason the LDP is steadily slipping in so much Self-Defense Force propaganda into media of late), but it doesn’t really drive voters as a single-issue. Voting tends to fall along personal connections and pork barrel. Like the American Senate, Japan’s electoral districts tend to substantially inflate the voting power of rural Japan, and the LDP has a ironclad grip on most of rural Japan on the basis of long-time incumbents who get money for their impoverished, aging regions. Likewise, there is a lot of loyalty to the LDP among educated elite and those working in the corporate sector, which alone explains the conservative party’s enduring base of support even in cosmopolitan Tokyo. The LDP itself is a broad tent party, that as I said earlier, gives no fucks about most issues of ideology, and tends to adapt whatever policy is getting really popular (and which rival parties are using to start making inroads against the LDP). That’s like literally, the entire history of modern Japanese politics. The issue is also a talent and organizational deficit, as the LDP is very well-organized and has a lot of talent, the kind of administrative depth that it uses to campaign as an all-rounded party, whereas most Japanese view all the other parties as one-trick ponies so to speak (really focused on just one issue), that lack the depth of talented leaders and administrators to actually present themselves as immediately ready to govern. The Constitutional Democratic Party as well, might have run on a more leftist platform this time, but my experience shows me time and again, that probably 90% of Japanese people have literally 0 awareness or understanding (and generally don’t care/don’t expect anything will change regardless, something that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy), of political issues and nuances; heck my fiancé and some of her friends have told me they don’t understand what I mean by left or right wing. Like they literally don’t understand progressivism vs. conservatism as concepts. Even nationalism isn’t really a concept here like it is in Europe or America, as Japanese mentality compartmentalizes things, and Japan both has nationalist pride in its history and culture while being ultra-cosmopolitan, borrowing freely from other languages and cultures, and tends to view other ways of life and culture as suitable for those areas (a different strokes for different folks outlook). I.e. even the most rabid Japanese nationalist typically thinks French culture is fine and good for French people, and likewise Egyptian culture for Egypt and so on, and freely admits all cultures and nations have strong and weak points. The absolute know-nothing, ‘Murica patriotism of the insular U.S. is simply not compatible with the outlook and way of thinking here.
Campaigns in Japan too, they are these bizarre, somewhat boring affairs (particularly to the vast majority of people who aren’t involved in the tribalism of active participation in a political party), where politicians spend virtually 0 time talking about policy or political issues and instead pontificate on vague and abstract issues of Japan’s future and the current problems facing Japanese society, and all the major parties, including the LDP, play up some forms of investment in subsidized child care, elderly care, stabilizing the pension program, etc. There aren’t even political ads (which are illegal) and most campaigning takes place from public stump speeches and cars running around town blaring short, formal greetings on loudspeakers over and over again. And unlike American Republicans, the LDP generally rubberstamps the social welfare system and has expanded it multiple times, usually as a response to criticism. The LDP is Republicans with no anti-tax Fiscal hawks and no Evangelical Christian dominionist wing; i.e. a very milquetoast, educated, elite, business oriented party that is literally the opposite of populism; I mentioned before, but the party just nonchalantly overwrote the voting results of its membership to install the weak-willed bureaucrat, Kishida, as PM over Kono. The LDP isn’t good, but I can honestly say they aren’t entirely awful; like their platform includes at least tying tax breaks to corporations to wage increases, electronic Sars-cov2 vaccine passports, and large scale funding increases for universities (albeit heavily focused in science and engineering). And in one bright spot, Amari Akira and Ishihara Nobuteru, two powerful right-wing hardliners in the party (who, t’is rumored, played key roles in stripping most of Kishida’s really reform-minded ideas from the LDP’s final platform), both lost their constituencies and Amari is resigning from his party position as well. So the LDP got marginally less bad.
Kishida Fumio is pretty boring (actually, boring is an understatement, and the guy makes the worst politician you have ever seen in America look like a charismatic speaker in comparison), but I did find it interesting he lived in New York City for a few years as a child, and speaks about how one of his formative early members was how a White classmate refused to hold his hand in Kindergarten when instructed to by a teacher during a field trip. Japanese accounts tend to focus on how boring he is, really the only noteworthy thing that pops up is that he is apparently a phenomenally strong drinker, who matched Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov drink for drink on several occasions and is renown in the government bureaucracy for consuming huge amounts of alcohol at Ginza bars while never losing his composure and always going home before it gets late. The loss of Amari and Ishihara, and better than expected results, probably give him a little more leeway, but he is still mostly a figurehead, with the real question being whether the LDP’s less socially conservative, and more willing to moderate, younger generation of leadership (i.e. folks in their the 50s and 60s, and Koizumi Shinichi), are able to impact policy moves more.
Here’s a link to the official results for those who want to take a deeper dive. www.nhk.or.jp/...