There have been so many of these, that at this point such introductions are tedious formalities. Basically, to contextualize what led to this diary was the constant discussion of how taking the House is pretty much impossible. How redistricting has doomed Democrats, etc etc. So, this has driven me to return to an earlier project, which seeks to outline how, if Democrats retook the House this cycle, it would happen, since some folks are so determined to say they can't even imagine the scenario.
The U.S. House has a current composition of 241 Republicans to 191 Democrats. To come up with a better picture at how many pick ups Democrats need, I have to also outline the specific effects of redistricting (seats eliminated):
Illinois: -1R
New York: -1R, -1D
Massachusetts: -1D
Ohio: -1D, -1R
Missouri: -1D
Pennsylvania: -1D
New Jersey: -1D
Michigan: -1D
Iowa: -1 (Undecided how the race between Latham and Boswell turns out)
Louisiana: -1R
Totals: -5R, -7D, -1undecided
New Seats:
Texas: +2R, +2D
Florida: (depends on which you count as new seats), +1D, +1tossup
Arizona: +1TiltD
South Carolina: +1R
Georgia: +1R
Washington: +1D
Nevada: +1D
Utah: +1R
Totals: +5R, +6D, +1tossup
Thus reapportionment actually favored Democrats, even though they bore the brunt of districts axed. That tossup is the new FL-18, where Allen West is running, (though really, you could say several other districts were also changed up.
Lastly, we need to take into account certain losses, like Heath Shuler's NC-11. Dan Boren's OK-02, and Mike Ross's AR-04. So let's just say Democrats are actually starting off in a 244 to 188 hole.
So, that's one base assumption out of the way. Now, let's get to business in a randomized district by district (or state by state, or regional, way). This is the first installment of a two or three part series, depending on how much commentary I feel driven to insert.
